Tuesday, January 20, 2004
I was so sure that Dean would surprise by bringing new voters into the caucuses that I almost posted on it. Oh well, I'm big enough to fess up now. I really don't know what happened to Dean, but I think he is a long way from done. I'm glad Gephardt is out of the way, and I think New Hampshire will be the end for Lieberman, and in that connection pass on this remark from Patrick Nielsen Hayden: "Leiberman may actually pull an upset or two in some state that fell off everyone’s radar, but there is no plausible alternate future in which he gets the nomination. Wait, yes there is: all the other candidates die from eating spoiled ham sandwiches backstage at a debate, leaving Leiberman facing only Dennis Kucinich, vegan." Hard to know where Clark fits in New Hampshire against the two New Englanders-- I worry that Dean's vow to repeal the Bush tax cuts will hurt him there, but a top three finish there will still work-- he is on for the long haul. What really bothers me is that we may see something like 1988 again, where there is a different top vote getter every week, and the strongest second choice candidate carries the day. Right now I'm not sure who that is-- my second choice is Edwards, but I don't know if he is widely viewed that way. Props to Slate's William Saletan, who saw Edwards as coming on strong long before the polls showed anything of the kind.
// posted by Bill @ 10:23 AM 
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