Outside Counsel

An interesting thing about McCain is that he really does have a terrible temper. Some of the things he has said to his wife have been quoted elsewhere and are remarkably nasty-- I wouldn't be sleeping on the couch in any of my wife's houses if I'd said that kind of stuff. He is apparently like this in his professional life as well. Timothy Noah reports that he harbors a personal dislike for Obama, which is interesting, and quotes an exchange of correspondence between the two members of the most exclusive club in the world that is really remarkable given that the institution prides itself on its civility. McCain, having been implicated in a corruption scandal once, now believes that he owns the issue, and that he himself is beyond all reproach. Apparently he had a notion about how the Senate should proceed with ethics reform, and when Obama had a different proposal (on a question of procedure, not substance) McCain went nuts. I have written probably more than my share of poisonous letters, and have taken to putting them aside for a day before sending them out. As fond as I am of the form, McCain's letter to Obama is so over the top that it is hard to believe that someone on his his staff didn't tell him to get a grip, or even just slide the letter under a blotter instead of sending it out.

AS I write this the Obama campaign has just launched an ad about the "How many houses" gaffe, and McCain is lashing back with an attack on Obama on the Tony Rezko thing. The McCain push-back is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, it's really his best shot, and it is on "integrity"-- McCain's pet issue. By taking it now I'd say he has probably taken it too early. No doubt they'll keep pushing that button, but that is probably also a bad plan. The house thing really hurts McCain on several fronts, and bringing it up is just going to remind people that (a) he couldn't remember how many houses he owns (because he is very, very old); and (b) that McCain has many houses, (because he is very, very rich). That takes Obama's "celebrity" off the table. Even though Obama's house is a really nice house, it is only one, and the chances are that Obama can find it himself without a staffer helping. Finally, it demonstrates that McCain really is an angry guy, with a hair-trigger temper. If he is this easily goaded, the chances are that he will blow up again, and I don't see that helping him. A couple more explosions like this and we may start seeing regular stories about McCain's arrested development. There may be women who are angry about Hillary, but I can't imagine that there are many in that group who will rush to vote for someone who got divorced because he was "turning 40 and wanting to be 25 again." I find McCain's record on reproductive freedom deplorable, but there is disagreement on that issue. Treating your wives poorly-- man, that's no way to get the ladies to vote for you.

And don't you wonder about what other senators McCain has teed off on? It would be interesting to see some of that coming to light, and it is bound to.

A big question mark in this campaign has been whether the Obama people will allow themselves to get cuffed around the way that Kerry (and Gore) did. Gore was caught flat-footed, and to some extent Kerry was too, I think. Kerry never expected that his military experience would be turned around against him. It was a stupid foundation for a campaign, and, ironically, a classic example of fighting the last war, and when he got Swiftboated Kerry couldn't believe it was happening. Obama seems to be working hard to move this election out of the culture wars of the 60's, and I say 'bout time.

The polling data is probably not all that reliable an indication of anything more than tendencies right now. As has been the case in the last three cycles turnout is going to be critical this year, and the things I'm reading suggest that Obama has a strong ground game set up. He's got the resources, too, and even if McCain is gaining ground, he's still playing catch-up ball. What we have seen so far tells us that one guy is capable of running a disciplined campaign with a focused message that can also quickly and creatively respond when necessary. The other guy, to his credit, keeps on coming. McCain's a stubborn cat, no doubt about it, and it would be a mistake to forget that. I doubt that the Obama people are counting on a McCain mistake to carry the day, but I think they may get one anyway.