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William C. Altreuter
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Wednesday, February 03, 2010

They can nominate ten movies for Best Motion Picture, but that doesn't mean that I'll have seen more than one. I do better with Animated Feature Films (3/5) and Actress in a Leading Role (2/5), but on the evidence I think it is safe to conclude that this was another year where I didn't get to the movies much. It isn't a habit of mine, I guess. When there is something I'd like to see other things get in the way, or the people who I go to movies with don't want to see it.

Just for the hell of it, here's how I see it breaking down: Best Picture: The Hurt Locker. James Camron backlash, plus Hollywood self-seriousness = Victory! Best Actor: Jeff Bridges. Everybody loved Clooney, but he's in something good every year. Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci. Just a hunch. Best Actress: Sandra Bullock. Did you realize she's 45 years old? Not exactly the best argument against the proposition that there are no roles for women over 24, since she plays at least ten years younger, but still. Plus the Streep movie wasn't that good (even though she was). Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique. That way Gabourey Sidibe can get a shout-out from the podium. Animated Feature Film: Up. This is the one category where I've seen the majority of the nominees, and it impresses me as the strongest field of any this year. Coraline is too dark; Mr. Fox is too arch,; The Princess and the Frog won't win because Mo'Nique is going to win Supporting Actress and that will take care of the African-American slot for the night. I don't know what The Secret of Kells is. Sounds Irish. Up was actually really good, and it was cheerful. People like cheerful. Art Direction, who knows? Let's call it for Avatar, since the number one box office hit of all time is going to win some stuff, and the two Victorian-era nominees are going to cancel each other out. Avatar will win Cinematography too. The Directing award will go to Up in the Air, because it is not Avatar, and it is the sort of socially aware movie that Hollywood likes to congratulate itself for making. Adapted Screenplay will go to Precious, because Up in the Air is going to win Directing. Original Screenplay is a tough call. Maybe A Serious Man, because they won't want to give it to Tarantino, and Up is a cartoon.

| Comments:
I can claim 3 BP nominees seen, but 3 haven't been released here and 1 only just, a timing issue common to all the categories. Of course, then there the movies I just don't care to see, but that's a separate issue. Cameron-backlash or not, Avatar just doesn't have enough story to carry its nomination let alone a win, no matter how much fun it was.
 

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