Super Lawyers
William C. Altreuter

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Is the 47% the end of Mittens campaign? Probably not: the world is full of chumps, and as Lance Mannion points out there are plenty of people who will vote Republican because they want to identify with rich people, even though they are not and never will be rich themselves. This sort of magical thinking is, I think, why a lot of people buy lottery tickets. On the other hand, have a look at the map to the right, which shows the states with the highest and lowest percentage of people who don’t file income tax returns. From a purely political science perspective I think we can say that this episode has probably edged Florida (29 electoral votes) into the Blue Zone. Mittens has already written off Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20). Call it a hunch, but I think Ohio (18) is going Obama. That's 83 electoral votes. Romney will probably swing Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) back into the Red column, although neither is a lock: Todd Akin on the ballot in the latter has gotta motivate some Democratic voters, and Indiana might realize that the automobile industry is an important part of its economy. I think Obama may have the ground game to carry North Carolina (15)-- that's why they had the convention there, after all. Nevada (6) is almost certainly Blue. My point is that even though this had the look of a close race, I'm not sure where Romney expects to gain ground. McCain's campaign was incompetent: I think McCain's strategy was to rely on his perceived charisma. Romney, I think, has thought that being a technocrat would carry the day, but he hasn't run as a capable manager-- he has been busily demonstrating that he is anything but. I'm not sure what he will look like in the debates. I have a hunch that he will look like the Audio-Animatronic character that stood on the podium during the Republican debates. That's unlikely to motivate anyone.

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