Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Five Thirty Eight reports that "Trump won 39 percent of the vote among Iowans who decided on their
candidate more than a month ago. But he took just 13 percent of voters
who had decided in the last few days, with Rubio instead winning the
plurality of those voters."
One could read that as meaning that Trump peaked too early. I think it means that the narrative shifted on him, and that Iowa caucus-goers were hedging. I did not know that there is a difference in procedure between the Republican Party and the Democrats: it turns out that the Republicans vote in secret, while the Democrats huddle and are counted in groups. I suspect that this has an impact on outcomes.
One could read that as meaning that Trump peaked too early. I think it means that the narrative shifted on him, and that Iowa caucus-goers were hedging. I did not know that there is a difference in procedure between the Republican Party and the Democrats: it turns out that the Republicans vote in secret, while the Democrats huddle and are counted in groups. I suspect that this has an impact on outcomes.
// posted by Bill @ 10:19 AM 
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Or that polls mean less the further out from the actual vote they are, as most people are as tuned out as they can be until they have to make a decision, especially in these last few cycles, where the campaigning starts almost as soon as the last election has been counted.
The science of polling has advanced a great deal since I was studying social science- but the caucus system is tricky to predict. In some ways I think that's a good thing, but I'm not sure it is strictly speaking a democratic thing. I guess what I like about it is that it is sort of deliberative, and possibly more issues focused
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